Allen Sinai

Allen SinaiFor over 25 years, Allen Sinai has been forecasting and interpreting business and financial trends and events for investors, corporate decision makers, policy makers in organizations around the world.  He is renowned for his ability to forecast new trends and waves as they affect the business environment and financial markets. Time magazine said, “Anyone who thinks that economists practice a dismal science has never been treated to the vivid commentaries of Allen Sinai.”

He is also Global Chief Economist of Global Insight, Inc. (GII), a Holding Company, Joint Partner of Decision Economics and owner of DRI-WEFA, a well-known economic forecasting company.  Decision Economics, Inc. is a global economic and financial market information and advisory firm with locations in New York, London, Boston and Tokyo, serving financial institutions, corporations, government and individual investors.  Clients include portfolio managers; fixed income, Forex, and equity market traders; global asset managers; CEOs; CIOs; CFOs; planners; strategists; economists; government; and individuals.

Allen has served a wide range of organizations and decisionmakers in the U.S. and abroad during his career, tailoring information and advisory support to the bottom-line needs of each.  He combines over 25 years of knowledge and experience in scientific quantitative economic research with applications to business decisions, financial markets and investing, along with actually managing businesses and involvement in markets.  He is well-known as a forecaster, educator and econometric modelbuilder; for his analyses and forecasts, especially of the financial markets; and is the developer of the Sinai-Boston large-scale macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy.  He is a pioneer in econometric modelbuilding and the information systems approach to forecasting, analysis and monitoring of economies, financial markets, industry and company performance.

Previously, Sinai was Chief Global Economist at Lehman Brothers, Inc., a Managing Director, and the Director of Lehman Brothers Global Economics.  He joined Lehman Brothers in 1983, serving the firm in various capacities until 1996, and established the Lehman, later Shearson Lehman, Economics Department, serving in various positions for thirteen years.  In 1988 to 1993, Allen was an Executive Vice President and Chief Economist for The Boston Company, a leading bank and asset management firm and subsidiary of Shearson Lehman Brothers.  The Boston Company was acquired by Mellon Bank in 1993.

Before joining Lehman Brothers in 1983, Allen was Chief Financial Economist and Senior Vice President at Data Resources, Inc. (DRI).  At DRI from 1971 to 1983, he worked with Founder and Chief Economist Otto Eckstein as a co‑developer of the DRI Model of the U.S. Economy and served as Chairman of the Financial Information Group, providing information products and services to over 300 financial institutions.

Over the years, Dr. Sinai has been consulted by administrations from both political parties on key economic issues.  He has been consulted by the current Administration on the economy and on tax policy.  Most recently, he has been involved as an Adviser to the Bush Administration on the economy and economic policy, participating in key meetings post-September 11.  He was an invited presenter at the December 1992 Little Rock Economic Summit and was consulted from time-to-time by various Clinton Administration officials.  He was also consulted by the prior previous Bush and Reagan Administrations in the 1980s.  He has met with officials in numerous state governments.  He has served as a consultant to the Federal Reserve Board.  He meets regularly with senior level policymakers of other countries.  He has often testified before the U.S. Congress and is a recognized expert on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, both as a scholar and in forecasting Fed policy.

Sinai has been Adjunct Professor of Economics and Finance in the Lemberg Program of International Economics and Finance at Brandeis University.  He has also taught in the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T., at New York University, Boston University, and the University of Illinois.  He is a past President and Fellow of the Eastern Economic Association and has been a Member of the Executive Committee, Western Economic Association. He has been a member of and contributor to the National Bureau of Economic Research-National Science Foundation (NBER-NSF) Model Comparison Seminar.  He was Chairman of CODAC, The Committee on Developing American Capitalism, from 1988 to 1995.  Allen is a member of the Time Magazine Board of Economists.  He is a member of the Board of Directors of Boston Private Financial Holdings Corp. and a Member of the Board of Trustees, Aspen Institute Italia.

For many years, Sinai has regularly written commentaries on the U.S., world economies and financial markets, providing forecasts and analyses to clients.  He has given hundreds of speeches to various groups and decisionmakers, ranging from individual investors to corporate executives and boards, financial market participants around the world, and technical sessions at academic meetings.  He has lectured and spoken in Japan, Korea, the Asia-Pacific, China, the U.K., Scandinavia, Western Europe, Mexico and Latin America, is frequently cited in the news media, and has appeared on radio and national television programs such as “Moneyline,” “Nightline,” the “Today Show,” CBS Morning News, ABC Nightly News, Good Morning America, This Week with David Brinkley, Face the Nation, Wall Street Week, CNN’s Business Today, Business Morning and Newsmaker Weekend programs, CNN-FN’s Market Sweep, and CNBC.  In 1992, Sinai was selected as one of the ten “Smartest People” in Boston by Boston Magazine.  He has been profiled in cover articles by Money Magazine (May 1983), (April 1988); also in Purchasing Magazine, Bottom Line Personal and others.  Time Magazine has said “Anyone who thinks that economists practice a dismal science has never been treated to the vivid commentaries of Allen Sinai.”

On public record for over 25 years, Sinai’s forecasts, as documented by third-parties, have been excellent, especially on identifying major trends in the economy and movements in financial markets.  In 1979, he foresaw the severe economic downturn which took place from 1980 to 1982 and the huge rises of interest rates necessary to bring inflation down.  In early 1982, significantly before a big change in market sentiment, he became bullish on the economy and markets, just in time for the roaring 1980s.  He turned pessimistic on the equity market in late 1986 and early 1987, well before the October stock market crash, and was extremely gloomy on PBS’s Wall Street Week on the Friday prior to the Great Monday Crash.  In December 1989, he was the first economist to suggest that a “recession” was in process and coming.  He generally was bullish on interest rates during the 1980s, was almost alone in correctly forecasting the continuing overshoot of the dollar to unexpectedly high levels in 1983 to 1985, then turned bearish on the U.S. currency because of the U.S. “twin deficits” for a number of years thereafter.  In 1991, going against the Consensus, he argued that the economic recovery was very much at risk and predicted that the initial stages of the upturn would be puny.  In 1992, before the Presidential Election, Sinai indicated that U.S. stocks were in a long U.S. Equity Bull Market, to be coincident with what would be the longest and best U.S. business expansion ever.

He remained strongly bullish on equities from that time until late 1999, for the U.S. and most other regions, except for his accurate prediction in Spring 1998 of a 10% to 15% correction, or somewhat more, in Summer because of Asian problems and their potential impact on the U.S..  In June 2000, Sinai was on record in Time Magazine expecting a Bear Equity Market and trouble in the economy.  He was almost alone in early 2000 expecting a significant downturn for the economy later in 2000 and in 2001.

In semi-annual surveys of some 50 forecasters in the Wall Street Journal in June and December 1995, Allen’s forecasts of dollar/yen for December 30, 1995 and June 30, 1996, respectively, turned out to be almost exactly the actual results.  He was similarly accurate on dollar strength in the same survey for yearend 1996, forecasting 115.3 yen to the dollar versus the actual 116.0.  In
the WSJ Survey for mid-year 1998, he ranked 8th of 54 forecasters generally across all the forecasts made.  In 1999 he ranked second.  In 2000 he tied for 2nd out of five.  He was the most accurate forecaster in the Business Week Survey 1998, as “Top Guru.”

Since 1992, he consistently argued that the economic cycle of the 1990s was different from all others in U.S. and world economic history, would be the longest and best ever, that inflation would stay low, longer than in any other business cycle episode, and that the U.S. equity bull market would be the greatest ever.  He is a New Era economist who has declared that a New Paradigm applies to the U.S. and world with the USA ascendant in a New World economy.  Of late, dating back to July 1997, he singled out the Asian Meltdown as a significant risk to the U.S. and world economies, one of the “worst economic events since the 1930s,” and a big risk to continuing prosperity worldwide.  Lately, he has indicated that the best of times is temporarily past and that the U.S. and global economies entered a recession before the Terrortist Attack of September 11.

Sinai has written numerous articles, papers and speeches in the popular and scientific literature, authoring or co-authoring over 40 articles in scholarly journals and publications.

Dr. Sinai holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics from the University of Michigan and a Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University.  He is married to Lee Etsten Sinai, an author of recreational books on biking and hiking in and around Boston and nearby Martha’s Vineyard.  Dr. and Mrs. Sinai have two children, Lauren, a writer-editor and marketing communications director with an M.B.A. Degree from The Kellogg School and Todd, who received a Ph.d. in Economics from MIT and now is an Assistant Professor at The Wharton School. The Sinai’s reside in Lexington and Edgartown, Massachusetts.

 

 

 
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